Thursday 15 September 2016

Demystify Kelly Criterion staking formula.

The Martingale and Fibonacci staking strategy depends on previous outcome where you increase your bet until you have a favourable result and restart the sequence again. While the advantage of Kelly Criterion strategy is your bet is independent of your previous bets but on the odds and probability of a single outcome result of any sport game. A simple explanation is a game with odds of 2 to 1 and a probability of 50%; you should not bet as per Kelly criterion. The odds is not the bookmaker odds as they are always smaller because of the bookmaker overround. What your strategy is to design in your bot software to calculate your own odds and probability  as input to Kelly criterion formula to determine the percent of bet you will put based on your arbitrary bank. Pinnacle explains Kelly criterion with calculator.

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